Conditional Probabilityhard
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In a genetic study, an allele AA occurs in 10%10\% of the population. A test for the presence of the allele has a false positive rate of 5%5\% and a false negative rate of 10%10\%. If an individual tests positive, the probability they actually carry the allele is P1P_1. If the same individual is tested a second time independently and tests positive again, what is the new probability P2P_2 that they carry the allele?